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Publications

Harp, R. D., & Horton, D. E. (2023). Geophysical Research Letters.

Key Points
  • We find widespread robust changes in two measures of interannual precipitation variability across the United States

  • We detect increases (decreases) in annual mean precipitation and wet day frequency across the eastern (western) United States

  • We explore the interaction of changes in precipitation frequency and wet day precipitation intensity on interannual variability

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Harp, R. D., & Horton, D. E. (2022). Geophysical Research Letters.

Key Points
  • We find consistent shifts from lower to higher daily precipitation intensities, particularly in the central and eastern United States

  • All contiguous United States domains show significant changes in their distributions of precipitation intensity from 1951–1980 to 1991–2020

  • Mean and standard deviation of wet day precipitation intensities increase for nearly all domains in the central and eastern United States

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Harp, R. D., Colborn, J. M., Candrinho, B., Colborn, K. L., Zhang, L., & Karnauskas, K. B. (2021). GeoHealth.

Key Points
  • Interannual variability of malaria in Mozambique is dominated by two spatio-temporal patterns

  • These two spatio-temporal patterns are linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole

  • Results suggest that predictable modes of inter-annual climate variability can be utilized to enhance malaria early warning systems

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Harp, R. D., & Karnauskas, K. B. (2020). Environmental Research Letters.

Key Points
  • The United States should expect an additional 2.3 to 3.2 million violent crimes between 2020 and 2099 depending on greenhouse gas emissions scenario

  • We project annual changes in violent crime count according to several temperature thresholds

  • Rough calculations place the economic valuation of these changes at $5 billion per year

Laidlaw, E. K., O'Neill, B. C., & Harp, R. D. (2019). Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change.

Key Points
  • The Community Earth System Model (CESM) has been applied to a wide variety of societally relevant topics

  • The use of CESM in managed, societal, and ecological systems research is rapidly expanding

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Harp, R. D., & Karnauskas, K. B. (2018). GeoHealth.

Key Points
  • The observed covariability between climate and crime rates was analyzed; regional and monthly averaging is critical for climate signal detection

  • Interannual regional violent crime rates are influenced by climate variability; strongest correlations exist with wintertime temperatures

  • Findings support Routine Activities Theory as the primary causal mechanism of this relationship linking climate and violent crime

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Active Preprints

Harp, R. D., and Horton, D. E. (preprint, in revision): Observed Changes in Interannual Precipitation Variability in the United States. Authorea.

Harp, R. D., Blanco, D. T., Sharma, A., Wuebbles, D. J., and Horton, D. E. (preprint, in review): Recent changes in Great Lake hydrologic variability: an artifact of chance or a robust change? Authorea.

Ryan D Harp

NOAA-CDC Climate and Health Postdoctoral Researcher

Cooperative Program for the Advancement and Earth System Science

University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

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